Betaville |
- Is Odey still bearish or turning bullish?
- Time to party like it's 2000, 2004 or 2006?
- Flag pole alert - part 7
| Is Odey still bearish or turning bullish? Posted: 23 Feb 2016 10:12 AM PST This time last year, Crispin Odey, the quintessentially British upper class hedge fund manager, hit the headlines when he turned particularly bearish, predicting a global economic downturn that will be "remembered in a hundred years" and leave stock markets facing devastation. But it appears the charismatic Odey is - potentially - changing his tune. Well, at least with regards to the US economy in the short term. According to Odey's latest missive to investors in his flagship fund seen by little old Betaville, US gross national product growth is likely to beat expectations in 2016 although he describes this a "problem". Why? Because it will force the US Federal Reserve to increase interest rates to by "at least over 1pc" over the next year. Odey, a jolly nice chap who can often be found at Mayfair haunts such as Scott's and 5 Hertford Street, points out that "in the US there is both consumer-fuelled lending taking place even as corporates are finding life difficult". So, Odey concludes: "No wonder that the stock markets are also finding life difficult. Earnings are falling and wage costs are rising. At the same time the Fed is already very behind in raising interest rates." Odey's flagship fund was up 7.2pc in January (remember he had a terrible April 2016 when the flagship fund fell almost 20pc). He has short equity positions in Lafarge Holcim, Fiat Chrysler, Advanced Micro Devices, Las Vegas Sands, Home Retail Group (ouch!) and LVMH. Odey's long equity positions are in Randgold Resources, Tungsten, Sky, Bank of America, Pendragon and Sports Direct.  |
| Time to party like it's 2000, 2004 or 2006? Posted: 23 Feb 2016 09:06 AM PST Reuters has just landed a cracking scoop about the LSE getting back into merger talks with Deutsche Borse. Here is a link to the confirmation release: http://www.investegate.co.uk/londonstockexgroup--lse-/rns/statement-re--press-comment/201602231347049016P/ And if the deal completes, it could be another mega payday for the uber bankers (that's Simon Robey and Simon Warshaw) over at Robey Warshaw, who seem to advising on every major deal at the moment...  |
| Posted: 23 Feb 2016 08:41 AM PST Readers might recall the heightened speculation towards the back end of last year about British American Tobacco weighing a £50 billion break up takeover bid for Imperial Tobacco, now called Imperial Brands. Well, I see Imperial Brands, formerly Imperial Tobacco, has just appointed Barclays as joint corporate broker alongside Credit Suisse. Now, the reason that's interesting is back in late 2015 when the rumours were rife about BAT looking at Imperial Brands/Tobacco, Barclays was said to be one of the advisers working with BAT on the "project", dubbed "Bison". However, I decided against running a proper/non-RARE story about BAT hiring Barclays as I could never fully stack it up with primary sources. And today's news adds to the circumstantial evidence that the rumour about BAT/Barclays/Imperial was complete [insert expletive here]! Or, perhaps not...  |
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